Storbritannien kommer förlora på att lämna EU trots friare handel globaltMars 13, 2018 | Magnus Nilsson, Frihandelsbloggen
Frihandelsbloggen har inte skrivit särskilt mycket om Brexit. Anledningen är att det mesta hittills har varit oklart när det gäller frågor som påverkar handeln.
Vad man har kunnat säga är att exempelvis japansk bilindustri som har Storbritannien som väg in i EU kommer att få problem och britternas utträde är förmodligen ett skäl till att ett frihandelsavtal mellan EU och Japan så snabbt kommit till stånd. Att TPP stoppades av Trump är förmodligen ett annat skäl.
Men om några veckor kommer förhandlingarna igång mellan EU och Storbritannien om villkoren för handeln. Den här artikeln i Financial Times ger en bra bild av vilka problem och möjligheter som finns, baserad på hur frihandelsavtal brukar vara utformade. Sammantaget verkar de flesta anta att Storbritannien förlorar på att lämna den inre marknaden, trots att det ger möjlighet att öppna för friare handel med resten av världen:
”With two exceptions, all publicly available forecasts suggest that UK economic output will be lower under an FTA than if Britain continued as a member of the EU. The estimated cumulative loss of gross domestic product ranges from a relatively low 0.6 per cent by 2030 to up to 7.8 per cent.
The evidence shows that removing trade barriers generally results in increased trade flows. That leads most economists to conclude that entering into an FTA with the EU will reduce the UK’s trade with the bloc.
“The reduction in trade with the EU . . . is by far the most quantitatively important channel by which leaving the EU affects the UK economy,” said researchers at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. It estimated that with an FTA, UK GDP would be 1.9 to 2.3 per cent lower by 2030.
Since trade with the UK is a smaller share of EU national income than vice versa, the economic effects of moving to an FTA are predicted to be smaller for the EU.
The CPB estimates that EU GDP could be about 0.6 per cent lower by 2030 under an FTA than if the UK remained a member of the bloc. This compares with their estimate of a 3.4 per cent loss of GDP for the UK.
Why do some studies predict larger or smaller negative effects?
The NIESR estimated that the UK GDP loss could more than double if lower trade and foreign investment had a knock-on effect on productivity growth.
Some published studies suggest that such negative effects could be partially offset by changes to UK regulations or through new free-trade agreements with non-EU countries.
Open Europe, a think-tank, estimated that GDP could be boosted by about 1.3 percentage point by 2030 if swaths of labour, product standard, consumer protection and environmental regulations were repealed. The UK government denies that it seeks such a bonfire of regulation.
However, the latest British government modelling suggests that new FTAs with non-EU countries could boost GDP by up to 0.7 per cent after 15 years.
Why do some economists think Britain would gain?
Economists for Free Trade, the Brexit-supporting group, estimates that an FTA with the EU could contribute to an increase to British GDP of 2 to 4 per cent over the next 15 years.
But this forecast assumes that the UK government removes all tariffs and non-tariff restrictions on imports, whatever their origin, suggesting that the UK would accept any goods of any standard, as well as zero border costs with the EU.
Alasdair Smith, a fellow of the UKTPO says the modelling is “unrealistic”.
He said: “The simple arithmetic is that the reduction in costs on non-EU imports does not compensate for losing the easy access to EU imports that results from the customs union and single market.””
Frihandel i media vecka 48November 30, 2017 | Magnus Nilsson, Frihandelsbloggen
Frihandel bland turkspråkiga. Turkiets ekonomiminister Nihat Zeybekci vill ha frihandel mellan de turkisktalande länderna. De är Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kirgizistan och Turkiet. Den turkiska tidningen Daily Sabah skriver:
”Turkic countries are not rivals of each other. Trade must be free on a large scale among the Turkic Council countries,” Zeybekci said at a meeting of the Ministers of Economy of Turkic Council in Istanbul.
The Cooperation Council of Turkic Speaking States, also known as Turkic Council, was establish in 2009 to promote cooperation among Turkic-speaking states, including Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkey.
Zeybekci underlined that free trade among the Council members would accelerate their economic power.
Turkic countries complement each other, and may have a strong place in global trade, economy and raw material and finished product markets by coming together, Zeybekci said.
The minister said that the Turkic region and the global economy were going through a major transformation and these countries had to have a long-term road map to provide wealth for their citizens.
”If the Turkic world can cooperate in this time, then it would be the gamesetter and rule-maker in its region. As a first step, we should remove the trade obstacles that stand in our way,” Zeybekci added.
Turkey’s total exports to three Turkic states — Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan — totaled $2.2 billion while imports from these countries stood at nearly $1.5 billion last year, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute.”
Känsligt om Kina. CNBC skriver om Kanadas premiärminister Justin Trudeau som rör sig mycket försiktigt när det gäller ett frihandelsavtal med Kina. Många i Kanada är tveksamma till projektet eftersom Kina inte är den frihandelsnation som dess ledare skryter om:
”Just days ahead of a Beijing visit, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has yet to decide on whether to launch talks on a free trade deal that China has long pressed for and could face a cool reception over his government’s decision to snub Chinese interest in Bombardier.
China wants a free trade pact similar to the ones it has with Australia and New Zealand but Trudeau, aware of domestic unease at the idea, is moving slowly.
”No decisions have been taken at this end as a government,” a Canadian source familiar with the matter said about the possibility of talks being announced during Trudeau’s Dec 3-7 visit.
Trudeau’s office declined to comment.
Trudeau is caught in a tough position. Although polls consistently show Canadians are split over the merits of a trade deal, Canada needs to diversify exports to offset the possible damage done if the United States pulls out of NAFTA. Any China trade deal would take a decade to complete, insiders say.
The prime minister also faces pressure stemming from distinct signs of impatience from China. Beijing laments what it sees as Canada’s ”vague thinking” about a deal, said one person briefed on the Chinese position who asked to remain anonymous given the sensitivity of the situation.
The Canadian source said the government was aware of Chinese impatience but, while diversification is important, Ottawa was setting ”a high bar in terms of what trade means for Canadians.”
”While they may be impatient to move forward, I think they understand that,” the source said.
Foreign executives operating in China complain about difficult working conditions, arbitrary decisions by local courts and lack of protection for intellectual property rights.”
Försäkringstrubbel. Londons försäkringsindustri vill ha ett frihandelsavtal med EU för branschen skriver Financial Times:
”The City of London’s commercial insurance industry will on Wednesday outline how it wants to trade with the EU after Brexit.
The proposals include an insurance-specific free trade agreement and measures to solve the thorny issue of how the industry can pay out on long-term pension and other contracts written under EU rules.
London is the largest centre for commercial insurance in Europe, with over £8bn of premiums coming into the UK each year from the rest of the EU.
Brexit could threaten London’s position, said Malcolm Newman of the London Market Group, an industry association. “What we are afraid of is that the economic cluster we have over here would be damaged over time. It is not direct and immediate damage, it is the fear of a long-term drift.”
The LMG’s free trade agreement proposals would reduce those risks by allowing insurance business to continue to flow between the UK and the EU after Brexit.”
Trump i Kina…November 10, 2017 | Magnus Nilsson, Frihandelsbloggen
USA:s president Donald Trump har varit i Kina och bland annat talat om handel.
Hans mest uppmärksammade uttalande var att han inte klandrar Kina för USA:s underskott i handelsbalansen. I stället menade Trump att hans företrädare var skyldiga.
Men förutom de politiska deklarationerna gjordes affärsöverenskommelser på kring 250 miljarder dollar. Hur stor del av detta som kommer att förverkligas är en annan fråga.
”Donald Trump blamed his predecessors for the US’s widening trade deficit with China, praising Xi Jinping and telling an audience in Beijing he did not “blame” Chinese leaders for “taking advantage” of Washington.
In a striking change of tone from the US president, who portrayed China as an economic bogeyman throughout last year’s election campaign, Mr Trump appeared at pains to rekindle the bonhomie that characterised the leaders’ first meeting at his Florida compound in April, a tenor that quickly deteriorated over North Korea.
Although Mr Trump has been welcomed with a state dinner and extensive pomp, Mr Trump’s personal warmth towards Mr Xi was not reciprocated, with the Chinese leader using far more restrained language in his own comments.
“It’s a very good chemistry between the two of us, believe me,” said Mr Trump. “After all, who can blame a country for being able to take advantage of another country for the benefit of its citizens. I give China great credit. In actuality, I blame past [US] administrations for allowing this out-of-control trade deficit to take place and to grow.”
Despite the personal outreach, Mr Trump still used his remarks to push Beijing to rebalance their countries’ “out-of-kilter” economic relationship and “quickly” break the impasse over North Korea’s nuclear and missile development programmes.
“Trade between China and the US has not been over recent years very fair for the US,” the US president said after a morning of meetings with his Chinese counterpart. “We must immediately address the unfair practices that drove [our trade] deficit along with barriers to market access.”
Mr Trump thanked Mr Xi for China’s efforts to restrict its trading and financial relationships with North Korea but implied Beijing could do more. “China can fix this [North Korea] problem easily and quickly,” Mr Trump told an audience of US and Chinese officials and business executives. “I know one thing about your president, if he works on it hard it will happen. There’s no doubt about it.”
Mr Xi did not respond to Mr Trump’s challenges directly, instead highlighting how successful US car companies had been in China and the number of jobs created by Chinese investors in the US. “We will never close our doors,” he said. “They will only open wider and wider.”
“Co-operation is the only viable choice,” Mr Xi said. ”
”BEIJING — President Trump’s $250 billion in Chinese business deals probably won’t be enough to stop a trade fight.
Mr. Trump met with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in Beijing on Thursday, offering personal praise and qualified criticisms of China’s trade practices. China, in return, offered modest concessions on some thorny trade issues. The two sides also pointed to what they claimed were billions of dollars of deals between Chinese and American companies to show face-saving progress.
But behind the scenes, Washington and Beijing are gearing up for what may well be months of contentious relations between the world’s two largest trading partners.
After initially focusing this year on renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement and the United States’ free-trade pact with South Korea, Trump administration officials plan to pursue previous promises to investigate what they call Chinese theft of American intellectual property. Lawmakers also plan to intensify scrutiny of Chinese investments in sensitive areas of the American economy.
Mr. Trump hinted at coming tensions on those fronts on Thursday, saying he hoped to address “the chronic imbalance in our relationship as it pertains to trade.”
“This includes addressing China’s market access restrictions and technology transfer requirements,” he said, “which prevent American companies from being able to fairly compete within China.””
”BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) – President Donald Trump can return to the United States claiming to have snagged over $250 billion in deals from his maiden trip to Beijing. Whether those deals live up to the lofty price tag is another question altogether.
Watched by Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping at a signing ceremony in Beijing, U.S. planemaker Boeing Co, General Electric Co and chip giant Qualcomm Inc sealed lucrative multi-billion dollar deals.
“This is truly a miracle,” China’s Commerce Minister Zhong Shan said at a briefing in Beijing.
The quarter of a trillion dollar haul underscores how Trump is keen to be seen to address a trade deficit with the world’s second-largest economy that he has long railed against and called “shockingly high” on Thursday.
But U.S. businesses still have many long-standing concerns to complain about, including unfettered access to the China market, cybersecurity and the growing presence of China’s ruling Communist Party inside foreign firms.
William Zarit, chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, said the deals pointed to “a strong, vibrant bilateral economic relationship” between the two countries.
“Yet we still need to focus on leveling the playing field, because U.S. companies continue to be disadvantaged doing business in China.”
U.S. tech companies like Facebook Inc and Google are mostly blocked in China. Automakers Ford Motor Co and General Motors must operate through joint ventures, while Hollywood movies face a strict quota system.
″(These deals) allow Trump to portray himself as a master dealmaker while distracting from a lack of progress on structural reforms to the bilateral trade relationship,” Hugo Brennan, Asia analyst at risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft, said in a note.
Some huge deals were announced. Among them is a 20-year $83.7 billion investment by China Energy Investment Corp in shale gas developments and chemical manufacturing projects in West Virginia, a major energy-producing state that voted heavily for Trump in the 2016 election. [
“The massive size of this energy undertaking and level of collaboration between our two countries is unprecedented,” West Virginia Secretary of Commerce H. Wood Thrasher said in a statement.”
Européer äter gärna amerikansk mat…Februari 25, 2014 | Magnus Nilsson, Frihandelsbloggen
USA:s jordbruksproducenter blir allt mer irriterade på EU:s officiella uttalanden kring TTIP inför den förhandlingsrunda som kommer att påbörjas i mars.
Enligt en artikel i Financial Times (bara för registrerade användare, men det finns en gratisvariant) är de starkt kritiska till ett avtal som inte innebär lättnader i EU:s motstånd mot hormonbehandlat kött och regleringar i genetiskt modifierade livsmedel.
Irritationen fick förnyat bränsle av de uttalanden EU:s handelskommissionär Karel De Gucht gjorde för en dryg vecka sedan under ett besök Washington. De Gucht gjorde mycket starka uttalanden om att den typen av lättnader i regelverket inte kunde komma på fråga. Den typen av kategoriska uttalanden är ovanliga (och olämpliga) i samband med att man skall påbörja förhandlingar.
USA:s representant Michael Froman slätade dock över uttalandena och påpekade att förhandlingarna ännu inte börjat och att de nog skulle kunna komma till ett väl balanserat avtal. En del amerikanska matproducenter har också hållit en lägre profil.
Det är även av andra skäl lätt att känna sympati för jordbruksproducenternas invändningar.
Godkännanden av genetiskt modifierade grödor tar extremt lång tid och kräver orimligt höga kostnader. Misstänksamheten mot USA:s matproducenter och reglerande myndigheter är dessutom direkt korkad. Är det något USA inte saknar är det regleringar motiverade av konsumentskydd. Inte minst för att skadeståndsprocesser är vanligare och kan leda till betydligt högre skadestånd än vad som är fallet i EU.
Och, kanske viktigast av allt. Som en representant för USA:s matproducenter påpekade: ”Européer kommer ju hela tiden till USA och äter amerikansk mat…”.